Recession risk

Federal Reser

2026-09-28 19:00:09

Treasury Curve Nears Inversion After Fed Hike, Leaving Markets Split on Recession Signal

The U.S. Treasury curve moved closer to inversion after the Federal Reserve raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16, a unanimous 12-0 decision and the first rate increase in three years. In the week that followed, the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries narrowed to as little as 17 basis points intraday, its tightest level since early 2025, though it did not invert. That move has reopened a familiar macro debate: whether the flattening reflects short-dated yields catching up with the policy path, or whether the bond market is beginning to discount the "strong U.S. economy" narrative. The split in views is sharp. CreditSights’ Zach Griffiths said a flatter curve could force investors to question how strong the economy really is, while TD Securities’ Gennadiy Goldberg argued the market has already priced in substantial tightening and sees limited room for front-end yields to rise much further versus the long end. Other indicators have not lined up behind a recession call. The 3-month/10-year spread was still about 93 basis points on Sept. 25, bank stocks have already corrected by more than 10% from their August highs, and the S&P 500 has yet to show a broader recession pricing shift. For now, the curve is flashing a risk worth pricing, not a confirmed downturn signal.

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US Treasuries

2026-09-28 02:12:01

US 2Y-10Y Treasury spread narrows to 17 bps, nearing inversion

The yield spread between 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries narrowed to 17 basis points at one point last week, the tightest level since early 2025, according to market data from BIT (bit.com). The 2-year and 10-year yields were recently around 4.9% and 5.2%, respectively, with the long end still near its highest levels since 2007. But as markets price in further Federal Reserve tightening, short-dated yields have risen faster, pushing the curve closer to inversion. Markets are currently pricing in at least three additional 25-basis-point Fed rate hikes over the next year. Earlier moves higher in long-term yields had reflected economic resilience, inflation pressure, and fiscal risk. After the Fed delivered its first rate hike in three years in September, attention has shifted toward whether policy rates are already high enough to restrain future growth. Historical data show that since the 1960s, yield curve inversions have preceded the past eight US recessions, though the 2022 inversion was not followed by a recession. The flattening has also spilled over into bank stocks, with the KBW Bank Index falling 10% from a recent high and entering technical correction territory last week.

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US economy

2026-07-21 08:09:18

US Leading Economic Index due Monday as markets look for an early read on recession and soft-landing odds

The Conference Board is scheduled to release the US Leading Economic Index for June at 10 a.m. ET on July 20, giving markets one of the earliest macro readings of the week ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 meeting. The May reading rose to 99.3, up 0.1% month over month, marking a second straight increase, while the six-month decline narrowed to 0.3% from 1.3% in the prior six-month span. Still, the improvement was driven entirely by financial components, especially stock prices and the interest rate spread, while non-financial indicators remained weak and consumer expectations continued to weigh on the index. The Conference Board’s lagging index stood at 120.5 in May, down 0.1% on the month but up 0.9% over six months, a mix that still points to slower growth rather than recession. Historically, the LEI tends to peak 11 to 12 months before a recession begins, and the current six-month growth rate remains well above the roughly -4% threshold often associated with recession signals. For investors, the June release matters less as a rate call and more as a test of whether the recent improvement reflects a broader economic recovery or simply mirrors stronger asset prices.

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Iran conflict

2026-07-09 17:13:13

BCA Warns Iran Conflict Could Push Oil to $200, Soaring Recession Risks for US, Europe, Japan

BCA Research warns that Iran conflict raises US recession odds to 40%, with Europe and Japan near 50%. A sustained 10% oil supply disruption could send crude prices to $200 per barrel.

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Federal Reser

2026-07-09 08:39:13

Jim Rickards Says Fed Is Behind the Curve as Recession Risks Build

Economist Jim Rickards argues that the Federal Reserve’s 50-basis-point rate cut signals policy panic rather than strength, pointing to falling oil prices and record-high gold as warnings that the U.S. economy is slowing toward recession.

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Iran conflict

2026-07-09 02:22:12

Iran Conflict Raises Recession Risk in Europe and Japan to 50%, BCA Warns Oil Could Hit $200

BCA Research strategist Peter Berezin says the Iran conflict has pushed U.S. recession odds to 40% and Europe and Japan closer to 50%, warning that a lasting oil supply shock could send crude to $200 a barrel.

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Iran conflict

2026-07-09 00:10:14

BCA Research Warns: Iran Conflict Could Send Oil to $200, Push Europe, Japan Recession Risk to 50%

BCA Research chief strategist warns that a 10% sustained disruption to global oil supply could send crude to $200 per barrel, with Europe and Japan facing a 50% recession probability.

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